What to expect when you have low back pain: prognosis for the first year
Monday, May 21, 2012 at 6:02PM | |
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A really interesting study was published recently in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.[i] The study looked pooled data from a number of different studies reporting on the outcome of people presenting to a doctor’s office with back pain.
As a physician, we tell everyone that most injuries will get better within about 6 weeks. This research confirmed “the broad finding of previous reviews that the typical course of acute low-back pain is initially favorable: there is a marked reduction in mean pain and disability in the first six weeks.” [ii]
However, there is more to the story here.
The researchers report, “Beyond six weeks, improvement slows and thereafter only small reductions in mean pain and disability are apparent up to one year. By one year, the average levels of pain and disability for acute low-back pain were low of suggesting that patients can expect to have minimal pain or disability at one year.” [iii]
A few of the specific studies in this meta-analysis are worth considering closer.
Gurcay et al. studied people present with back pain of less than 3 weeks duration.[iv] They found:
- 27% recovered in the first week
- 31% recovered in the second week
- 23% recovered in the fourth week
- 10% recovered at the eighth week
- 1% recovered after 12 week
- 9% developed chronic low-back pain
If you looked at just this study and had back pain of more than 12 weeks duration, you might consider yourself screwed. There is hope, though, and all is not so bleak. Other studies within this same meta-analysis suggest that 95% of all people with back pain have complete resolution of symptoms by 3 months from the time of onset.[v]
There a large body of research suggesting that chronic back pain can be improved or made to go away. So there is always hope. However, this study speaks to the importance of working to address symptoms before they settle into a more chronic state. In chronicity the brain can develop patterns of being sensitized to the issue, making it harder to break free from the pain cycle.
In a separate video post I have attempted to highlight a few exercises that can be used as “first aid” for the back: http://www.backexercisedoctor.com/journal/2011/7/30/video-of-mckenzie-press-up-exercise-first-aid-for-back-pain.html.
[i] CMAJ. 2012 May 14. [Epub ahead of print]
[ii] CMAJ. 2012 May 14. [Epub ahead of print]
[iii] CMAJ. 2012 May 14. [Epub ahead of print]
[iv] Disabil Rehabil 2009;31:840-5.
[v] Arthritis Rheum 2004; 51: 168-76.






